The real estate market is generally different from one region to another in Canada. Buying a house in Quebec requires taking several factors into account, including local trends and particularities. Before making your decision, discover with your Xperto mortgage broker some important elements to help you decide.
What is the current evolution of the real estate market in Quebec?
You’ve been considering acquiring a new home for some time and wondering if the current period is the right time? Buying real estate in Quebec – or in another part of Canada – is an important commitment. The answer to this crucial question encourages you to stay informed about local market conditions and news. Learning about several facts related to Quebec’s real estate sector can help you make the best decision for your project:
- Housing price trends in Quebec
The Quebec real estate market is beginning a recovery since 2024 and this trend is confirmed at the beginning of 2025, after the period of uncertainty and slowdown in previous years. Several factors are behind this dynamic:
- the gradual decline in interest rates,
- sustained demographic growth,
- improving household incomes.
- A recovering market, but still under pressure
These elements stimulate demand and attract a growing number of buyers to the market, creating a favorable context for sellers. Market data indicates that residential sales in the Quebec census metropolitan area progress by 7% in January 2025 compared to the previous year. This increased activity is explained by more numerous and more active buyers, motivated by more advantageous financing conditions.
However, the supply of available properties on the market remains limited, with a 30% drop in listings. This scarcity of properties intensifies competition among buyers and leads to a multiplication of overbid purchase offers, making housing acquisition more complex and costly.
- Upward pressure on prices
This imbalance between supply and demand has a direct impact on real estate prices. Small income properties are experiencing a spectacular 30% increase, followed by condominiums with a +22% increase and single-family homes with a +13% increase. This price increase reflects a market in full effervescence, particularly in large cities where real estate pressure is strong. For buyers, this price inflation represents a major challenge, as it reduces housing affordability and requires higher down payments.
Source: https://apciq.ca/un-mois-de-janvier-en-surchauffe-les-prix-explosent-a-quebec/
- Disparate price forecasts for properties by region
While the general trend is rising prices, this situation should vary by region in Quebec. In Quebec City and Montreal, where the market remains tight, increases should remain sustained. In sectors like Gatineau and Ottawa, price growth should be more moderate, thus offering more affordable opportunities for buyers. Other regions, like Halifax, are recording a lower increase, reflecting a more balanced market. For future homeowners, these regional differences should be considered in their purchasing strategy.
- A tight rental market, reflecting a persistent housing crisis
Despite a slight slowdown in rent growth in 2024, the Quebec rental market remains under pressure. The vacancy rate is slightly up, but it remains below the historical average. The availability of rental housing thus remains limited. This situation, combined with sustained demographic growth, maintains constant pressure on demand. For buyers, such a context means that competition for acquiring real estate could remain strong, particularly in popular urban areas.
Affordability is also another important issue, for both renters and future homeowners. Although rent growth is experiencing this slowdown, housing units changing tenants are experiencing significant increases. This situation can encourage some renters to turn to buying, thus increasing demand for properties. The Quebec real estate market also presents important regional disparities. In Montreal, for example, affordable housing is becoming rare, while in the Quebec region, rents are experiencing record increases.
The evolution of mortgage rates and their impact on the real estate market
Mortgages are an essential solution for about 35% of Canadians who own real estate. This context continues today and a large portion of current buyers aspire to secure mortgage financing for property acquisition. Closely following mortgage interest rate trends is therefore essential, whether you’re considering buying a house in Quebec immediately or waiting a few months or years before taking action:
- Stay informed about the evolution of the Bank of Canada’s key rate
The recent evolution of mortgage rates in Quebec, influenced by decisions from the Bank of Canada, offers interesting opportunities for potential buyers. In January 2025, the Bank of Canada lowered its key rate by 25 basis points, bringing it from 3.25% to 3%. This decision, which is part of a series of successive cuts, has a direct impact on mortgage rates, making them more attractive. In January 2025, it’s possible to find rates around 4.5%, encouraging many buyers.
- Stronger purchasing power for buyers
Mortgage interest rate cuts have a significant effect on the Quebec real estate market. This situation stimulates household spending, as highlighted by the Bank of Canada, thanks to renewed consumption and housing market activity. The decline in interest rates also increases household purchasing power, allowing a greater number of purchase candidates to qualify for a mortgage or to borrow higher amounts. This increase in borrowing capacity leads to increased demand and consequently an increase in property prices, particularly in regions where inventory is already limited.
- Changes in favor of buyers regarding mortgage rules
The year 2024 brings its share of changes regarding mortgage rules in Canada. The federal government is indeed implementing important mortgage reforms aimed at making homeownership more affordable. These developments include:
- an increase in the price ceiling for insured mortgages: it goes from $1 million to $1.5 million, thus reducing the down payment required for high-value properties. The minimum down payment for a $1.4 million property would now be less than $165,000,
- 30-year amortizations for first-time buyers: the federal government adopts a reform authorizing 30-year amortizations for buyers purchasing their first property or a newly constructed property. This measure is implemented to reduce monthly mortgage payments.
- Potentially more numerous buyers
The changes made to mortgage rules in 2024 can release pent-up demand that had been curbed by prices that were too high or less favorable interest rates in recent years. They can also contribute to a recovery in sales in the Quebec real estate market, particularly in the affordable and intermediate segments.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation forecasts also indicate that the Bank of Canada could further reduce rates in 2025 to control inflation and support the economy. Variable rates should decrease more than fixed rates, a situation likely to attract more buyers to the real estate market. However, since mortgage rates are sensitive to economic prospects and risks related to foreign trade, their evolution remains difficult to predict today.
Advantages and disadvantages of buying a house in Quebec now
With an evolving market and encouraging economic forecasts, buying real estate in Quebec immediately presents advantages and disadvantages:
Why buy immediately?
- Benefit from interest rates expected to fall
Although mortgage rates have experienced a sharp increase in recent years, most forecasts indicate a possible decline. By the end of 2025, they could reach 2.50%. This opportunity is interesting for those who buy now and wish to benefit later from better conditions for a renewal or refinancing. By securing a mortgage loan today, it’s possible to benefit from immediate financial stability while keeping the option to reduce monthly payments in the future.
- Build your equity immediately
One of the major advantages of real estate purchase is building equity. Rather than continuing to pay rent without return on investment, buying a property allows you to accumulate equity that increases the owner’s net worth. Having real estate equity can also be an important financial leverage in case of need, as you have the possibility to access home equity lines of credit or other forms of financing at preferential rates.
- Take advantage of your property’s long-term appreciation potential
Even if prices are high today, real estate remains a profitable investment in the long term. The evolution of the Quebec real estate market shows that property values tend to increase over time, despite certain short-term fluctuations. Buyers who purchase now can benefit from capital gains on their property in the medium and long term, thus strengthening their financial wealth.
- Enjoy stability in the face of rising rents
With the constant rise in rents and their unpredictable fluctuations, becoming a homeowner allows you to stabilize your housing costs. Rather than suffering annual increases, as a homeowner you can secure your housing long-term by paying predictable mortgage payments. This stability is particularly valuable in a context where rental housing affordability is deteriorating in several major Quebec cities.
- Avoid the pressured real estate market and soaring prices
The Quebec real estate market is under pressure and could experience a new surge in prices in the coming periods. If demand maintains or increases, this situation combined with a limited property inventory can create an environment where you must be ready to overbid more than today to acquire a property. Forecasts indicate a price increase in most Quebec regions: your budget will need to be even more substantial to realize your purchase project if you wait to make it happen.
Why postpone your project until later?
- Avoid compromises due to reduced property availability in the market
The shortage of available housing is an obstacle not to be neglected. To find a property that meets your expectations, you are indeed tempted to postpone buying your house in Quebec until later. If you buy immediately, you may be forced to make compromises on various factors such as:
- location,
- type of property,
- or the price you’re willing to pay.
The increased competition among potential buyers reduces your negotiating power and can push you to make hasty decisions, without having the time necessary to evaluate all your options.
- Circumvent the uncertainty hanging over your mortgage interest rate
Even though forecasts predict a decline in interest rates in 2025, no formal guarantee reinforces these predictions. Rates could remain high, or even increase, with potential impacts on your mortgage payments. The current level of mortgage rates is higher than those practiced during the period before the coronavirus pandemic. This situation can discourage many potential buyers and it’s essential to consider this uncertainty in your financial planning.
- Avoid a decrease in your negotiating power due to strong competition among buyers
If interest rates decrease as expected, the market can remain favorable to sellers. You may find yourself competing with many other buyers. Such a situation is likely to reduce your negotiating power and drag you into bidding wars.
3 important elements that can influence your purchase decision
Besides the evolution of mortgage rates and the supply and demand situation in the real estate market, other exogenous factors can also be important for your decision-making:
- The evolution of Canada’s economy
The job market and economic growth have a direct impact on the ability of buyers who want to invest in real estate. Job growth and household income growth should continue to support housing demand in Canada in 2025. This stable economic environment strengthens consumer confidence, allowing them to make bold financial decisions, like your property purchase project.
If you work in a growing sector, you can benefit from better job security and salary evolution that strengthens your purchasing power and facilitates your mortgage repayments.
- The time of year
Distinct seasonal cycles influence the Quebec real estate market, like most markets in Canada. These cycles are dictated by supply and demand and they can have a significant impact on your purchase project:
- from January to March, a favorable period for informed buyers
While winter is often perceived as a moderate period for the real estate market, it can actually be an excellent time to buy. The decrease in the number of buyers between January and March indeed reduces competition. Prices are therefore likely to be lower and you can benefit from a greater margin for negotiation. However, winter weather conditions can make property visits and inspections more complex.
- from April to June, prepare for market effervescence
Spring marks the beginning of the active real estate market season. The increase in the number of available properties offers buyers a wide range of choices. Better weather also facilitates your travel to locations, which is a considerable difference. From April, the real estate market is nevertheless subject to strong competition, with potentially higher prices. Your margin for negotiation with sellers becomes more limited, as demand generally exceeds supply during this period.
- from July to September, a real estate market in full dynamism
Summer extends the spring dynamic, with generally important property inventory and sustained demand. Sunny days and numerous open houses make visits pleasant. It’s also an ideal time to evaluate property comfort under heat, notably testing air conditioning systems. As autumn approaches, however, the number of new listings may decrease, rapidly reducing your options. The month of August can offer you interesting opportunities, with more frequent price drops than in spring and a wider choice than in winter.
- from October to December, to take advantage of unexpected opportunities
Autumn offers a mix of opportunities and challenges. The decrease in the number of buyers can create a favorable environment for negotiation, allowing you to obtain more favorable prices. This period is also transitional, with a property supply that can vary considerably from one region to another. Staying informed about local trends and being flexible in your searches is therefore advised.
The period from October to December is also particularly favorable for buying and selling plexes in Quebec: it allows new owners to respect legal deadlines for housing repossession. Quebec law requires that the purchaser wishing to recover housing for personal or family occupation send a notice to the tenant at least six months before the end of their lease. Since the majority of leases end on June 30, this means the notice must be transmitted before December 31, making this period crucial for real estate transactions.
- Demographic growth
Quebec is experiencing constant demographic growth, fueled by immigration and population increase. This increase generates increased demand for housing and is partly behind the upward pressure on house and rent prices. Waiting too long before buying could mean in this context paying more in the future. To make your decision, it’s therefore advised to monitor price and market evolution by regularly consulting local real estate board reports while closely following demographic growth in the region.
Our 4 tips for making an informed decision
Understanding the interactions between these different factors – such as mortgage rate evolution, real estate market trends, and economic news – allows you to make an informed decision. Regular monitoring of interest rates and following market news are essential steps when your project is to buy a house in Quebec immediately.
Your Xperto mortgage brokerage agency also brings you four additional tips to optimize your purchase as best as possible, whatever your decision:
- Analyze your financial situation and long-term projects
Before launching into property purchase, you are encouraged to clearly understand your financial situation. In this regard, analyze your budget, your job stability and your creditworthiness. A real estate purchase involves long-term financial commitments and it’s important to ensure you can cover all necessary expenses, including mortgage, property taxes, maintenance fees, and unexpected costs for example. Using a tool to calculate debt-to-income ratio is very helpful for analyzing your financial situation.
Also consider your needs and long-term objectives. Determine the type of property that suits you best, the neighborhood where you want to live, and the amenities that are important to you. Make sure the property you’re considering buying will meet your current and future needs.
Ask yourself the right questions:
- do you have sufficient down payment to avoid CMHC mortgage insurance fees?
- is your job stable and does it ensure constant income?
- does your debt ratio allow you to obtain an interesting mortgage pre-approval?
If your financial situation is solid and you have coherent long-term projects, such as staying in the same region for example, buying a house in Quebec immediately is the best solution.
- Obtain a mortgage pre-approval
A mortgage pre-approval gives you a clear idea of the amount you can borrow and protects you against interest rate increases for a determined period. This step also demonstrates to sellers that you are a serious and creditworthy buyer. Don’t hesitate to shop around for your mortgage with different financial institutions to get the best conditions.
- Consult a mortgage broker
This professional can advise you and help you find the mortgage that best suits your situation. Thanks to their knowledge of the banking market, they can help you benefit from attractive interest rates and guide you through the different possible options. Xperto offers precisely this kind of service.
- Be ready to act quickly
In a competitive market, it’s important to be ready to act quickly when you find a property that interests you. Prepare your purchase offer with the help of a professional and be ready to negotiate.
Conclusion
Buying a house in Quebec now is a decision that relies on many factors specific to each buyer. The nature of your project, the opportunities that present themselves, but also your personal financial situation and the evolution of mortgage rates are all elements to consider. Whatever the case, accompaniment by an XPERTO mortgage broker is always recommended for such a project. A professional like Xperto puts their expertise at your disposal to put you on the best path in the search for financing and help you with signing a mortgage loan.